Stranica 2 [2]
XeA Oct
- page two =
Demoeratse
. fo put the whole situation into the lenguage of practical
polities, the problem of Eisenhower could be summarized as follows ¢%
As a basis of action he must first hold those 189 votes which went
. for Deweye This is likely for all but 49, those being the votes of
New York, where H.nry Wallace's ticket threw the State ti dewey. Now
Wallace is no more, and the Brogressive Candidate, Hallinah, will
make a very poor shows Nevertheless there is hope for Eisenhower in
New Yorky especially since the Cashmore = Liberal rift in the Sena=
torial contest might split the oppositions But even presuming that
Eisenhower would gain all those votes, he would stili be 77 votes
short of the needed 266. As things stand today, four more states seem
to be leaning towards him, nemely lowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Minne=
sota ( if the anti-Bisenhower trend in the state, which we noted,
would not become to strong )» This would give him 247 votes, or 19
less than the needed onese These 19 votes could come from Texas,
with 24 votes, if the Shivers move succeedse It could come from Cali-=
fornia, though we doubt this, since quite obviously Republican Go=
vernor Warren is playing into the Democratic hands, though officie¬
ally loyal to his partye California has 32 votese It could finally
come from the 27 votes of Illinois, though here too this observer
would be quite doubtful, this being Stevenson's home=statee And fi¬
naliy = this seems, if at all, the most likely way — it could come
from a few smaller States, such as certain Mountain and Western Sta=
tes, which seem to be shifting towards Eisenhowere Still, every way
one looks at it, it seems as if in the end most of the decision
might hinge on New York State = which in itself, as pointed out =
is very much in doubte
From the Stevenson point of view, the situation seems to
look as follows : He needs first the support of the Solid South with
its 128 votes, He must add to this the 39 votes of the border states
other then Marylende These border States seem to be most probablt in
the bag, in fact more so then $ome of the Solid Southe The 32 votes
of Massachusetts and Rhode Island ure in the bag, so it seemse This
puts the Governor at 199 votes, To this should be added as probable
the 27 votes of Ililinoise So the Governor would be ut 226, or 40
votes short of the majoritye These votes could come from New York
alone, or from a combination of States, especially if California
goes the Stevenson way, as it might easily doe Nevertheless the week
point of the operations is, that ig is us yet hot absolutely certain
whether the Solhd South relaind really solide It is likely but by
no means certaine If Texas " takes a walk ! then the fight of Steven¬
son will really be an uphill fight, with the chences leaning heavily
the Eksenhower way?
5 7.