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an BoAel 3. of June.52.
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eee, Z he
with the army. However his unscheduled return to Teheran has lately plaeed
him again into the center of increasingly spreading rumors.
Moscow officially has taken no position either, except as to
express its satellites' interest in Persia's financial difficulties and
promising petrol purchases to reléeve the situation. Moscow seems to reserve
its attitude for the time when Persia will be ripe.
In the light of this deteriorating inner situation the penetration
of Persia by so-called commercial agents from satellite countries is not to
be overlooked. A highest class inteliigence agent, connected with Foland,
comes from Cairo; through Kome starts the infiltration by Hungarian men. Once
more the Soviet Union seems to prefer not to be involved herself; but to let
the satellites prepare the stage for the next important act.
As far as Western defense goes, rersia presents undoubtedly a grave
Problem. It should not be overlboked that iran aS such presents no real
protection in the North of Abadan and of the fersian Gulf: the country is
Socially, financially, politically ana Strategically speaking dangerously
undermined; its army is in poor moral and poorly equiped. In case of a Russian
aggression, the petrol center would thus be opened, without much resistance,
- to bombardment, to sabotage and to easy land invasion from the North,
Western defenses are weak in the area, britain has a few vessels, operating
from the Bahrein Island Naval base and having as exclusive mission to patrol
the water and control the movements of tankerse The Royal Air ¥Furce is not
strongly represented in the Gulf region either; it disposes of one larger
basis and a few small fields in Írag and on Bahrein Island, americans share
the Dhahran air-fidd with Saudi-Arabia; but they too have no true fighting
units in that area,
fran today is clearly a weak Spot for the West. Increased Mscow
influence in Persia - be it through greater infiltration in government and
army, be it through a military coup, be it through a general revolution or
riots, or finally through open invasion = would wean control over Asia's
most important petrol field, a pincer movement around india and /akistan and
direct contact with the Arab worlde : :
At a moment where Soviets make a show on the German front and
attract attention on Berlin, without moving to a point where actual conflict
arises; at a time when Frnsch and Swedish planes are Spectacularly attacked
in the West, a very silent offensive, carried out by satellite¢ agents in the
Kast should not eseape world attention. Action there ig both political and
Strategic and has great poteentialities to develop rapidly into sither
direction,