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is the real unknown factor in the elections. Hence all forecasts
based on past voting records are liable to become false.
Second : Public opinion polis have to suffer under one
great handicap. Rightly or wrongly it is considered in America
socially as better to be a Republican, It means that one is of
the better classe Hence whenever polisters approach lower income
class people and ask them for their preference, they are likely
to say they are Republicans, since this increases their stature.
Once they are in the secret booth they vote asain Democrat.
Third : of those voters who go to the polls regularly
the true majority is definitely in the Democratic fold. This is
especially true for the Trade-Union members. Hence in order to
win the Republicans must by all means get non-voters to the polls¬
something more easily said than done, Republicans can not win
by their own forces alone,
Fourth : Though in Europe it is completely assumed that
the Republicans will win in 1952, this is simply not so. In fact
present indications are to the contrary. This is mainly due to
the bitter feud inside of the Republican Party. Democrats have
already gotten all the ammmition they need from the Republi¬
cans themselves, And the bittemess is so great, that whoever is
nominated a Taft or Bisenhower = the opposing party in the Repub¬
lican Party will be rather unwilling to help him. In fact the
nominee will have first to heal some grave wounds - and whether
he will succeed is very open to ques$ione On the other hand the
Democrats have less wounds than in 1948 and more harmonys Their
inner strife is less grea@te Therefore they can close more easily
the ranks.
Fifth : If Taft should be nominated with the contested
Delegations - Texas,Mississippi, Georgia - this would create a
first-class national scandal, which would gravely handicap the
party. It might be even said, that in such a case the chances of
the Republicans would be slender indeed.
; Conclusion $ In the opinion of this observer, while the
chances of the Republicans are good, if they can remake their
unity after the Convention, the edge, despite appearances, still
is for the Democrats, The elections, in fact, are wide Opene