Oldal 3 [3]
?
the Senator much-needed votes to achieve a majority.
In the D.mocratic field, the choice of the first place
seems to be restriéted now - at least for the time being - bet¬
ween Governor Stevenson and Senator Kefauver. The other candi¬
dates seem unlikely, Senator Kerr has not been able to corrail
y Delegate strength ou:side of his home-state Oklahoma.
ir, Harriman is similarly restricted to New York, and passionately
opposed in the South, He is not popular elsewhere. Senator Russell
is popular in the Soth but opposed everywhere where the Negro
vote is decisive. Kefauver has a good Delegate strength, but
ail the powers in the party are against him. The main reason is,
that his crime-investigation has hurt the party plenty : and
the racketecrs, raher powerful in certain Demceratic orgenizas
tions are ready to fight him with all the vast power they con=
one not tied up with the rackets - is against him, because they
feel that he is neither prepared nor up to the terrific task
the Presidency means in modern times. Hence they also will do
their best to defeat him, Kefanvers chance is that you can't
beat somebody with nobddy. And so fat Governor Stevenson has
shorm little willingness to go and fight for the nomination, In
wents only to remain a governor, Still the main Democratic lea=~
ders hope, that he will accept at the Conventions He is clearly
more lilely to accent if Taft is nominated § it is open to ques=
tion whether he would be ready to fight Bisenhowere Hence even
today, the Democratic field is wide open. But despite this,
there is rather creat harmony in the party and no great perso¬
nal feuds,
it is indeed risky to make forecasts under the pre=¬
trends in the population, this observer would like to make a few
points which, though rarely if at all mentioned, seem to him to
be of paramount importance in order not to be taken in by the
entirely distorted picture which the coming months of propaganda
are likely to give,
First : the greatest difficulty in making forecasts in
America lies in the fact, that in a presidential election gene=
rally only half of the voters go to the polis, Roughly 50% of.
the American voters do not vote. This explains the so-called
landslides, since it is a large reservoir, hitherto untapped,
from which politicians can draw forth new strength = if they can
move them, The voter who has already voted is more or less a
known strength ; but the voter who refuses to go to the polls
ae