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EZEORI FROM THE UsSehe
Practically all the primaries are already over, and
only a very few delegates remain to be chosen, Since the first
days of June, and more especially since Eisenhower's return to
the USA and his speach in Abilene the last phase has started in
the pre~convention fights, Most Delegates have announced their
preference. But in both parties, there is at present no majority
for any contendere The decision will lie hence with the so-calied
"aninstructed" Delegates, and it is arouad these decisive men
that the fight will now be coneentrayed,.
In the Republican field an honest canvass gives the
following picture. Taft is very close to the absoiute majority
on the first ballott. He has well the largest bloc of Delegates.
His main strategic weakness lies in the fact — very grave in
view of the very particular structure of the American system of
Conventions = that he has not, what is called in american poli¬
tical slang "secondary force". These are Delegates pledged to
somebody else, but who on the second balilott are likely to switch
their vote, Taft has coralied all the forces that he can gets
He therefore, in the opinion of his own staff, must win on the
first ballott. Otherwise he is likely to lose, This observer,
while agreeing generaliy with the analysis, still feeis that if
Taft gets extremely close to the absolute majority on the first
ballott, he might by clever manoeuvres gain one of the "favourite
son" Delegations and hence win on the second bailott. But for
that he must make an exceptionally good showing on the first one.
Eisenhower on the other hand, while he has much legs Delegates
at present, has also powerful secondary force, viz? the Stassen,
from gaining in the first two ballotts his chances are likely to
ful finances, This does not hurt hime The possibility of a dead=
lock nevertheless should not be forgotten. It is the more likely
since the battle between the two top=-men has been one of the
Hence Delegates had to take firm stands and are less Likely to be
budged. Since a break-up of the Republican Party - as in 1912
between Taft and Roosevelt - seems most unlikely, the question of
a compromise candidate is actively studied by the insiders. Up to.
a few days ago, only the name of McArthur was mentioned. But he is
to much a typical Taft fen. He seems hence impossible, in order to
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