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Aed e : es - page four =< is the real unknown factor in the elections. Hence all forecasts based on past voting records are liable to become false. Second : Public opinion polis have to suffer under one great handicap. Rightly or wrongly it is considered in America socially as better to be a Republican, It means that one is of the better classe Hence whenever polisters approach lower income class people and ask them for their preference, they are likely to say they are Republicans, since this increases their stature. Once they are in the secret booth they vote asain Democrat. Third : of those voters who go to the polls regularly the true majority is definitely in the Democratic fold. This is especially true for the Trade-Union members. Hence in order to win the Republicans must by all means get non-voters to the pollssomething more easily said than done, Republicans can not win by their own forces alone, Fourth : Though in Europe it is completely assumed that the Republicans will win in 1952, this is simply not so. In fact present indications are to the contrary. This is mainly due to the bitter feud inside of the Republican Party. Democrats have already gotten all the ammmition they need from the Republicans themselves, And the bittemess is so great, that whoever is nominated a Taft or Bisenhower = the opposing party in the Republican Party will be rather unwilling to help him. In fact the nominee will have first to heal some grave wounds - and whether he will succeed is very open to ques$ione On the other hand the Democrats have less wounds than in 1948 and more harmonys Their inner strife is less grea@te Therefore they can close more easily the ranks. Fifth : If Taft should be nominated with the contested Delegations - Texas,Mississippi, Georgia - this would create a first-class national scandal, which would gravely handicap the party. It might be even said, that in such a case the chances of the Republicans would be slender indeed. ; Conclusion $ In the opinion of this observer, while the chances of the Republicans are good, if they can remake their unity after the Convention, the edge, despite appearances, still is for the Democrats, The elections, in fact, are wide Opene
